Trier, December 1, 2020: A 52-year-old man races through the pedestrian zone in his car. Five people are killed in the rampage. Dozens are injured and around 300 people are said to have been traumatized. How could this happen? Were there no warning signs?

The North Rhine-Westphalia police have been dealing with such questions for several years. Not only in Department 3 (general crime), but also in the state security departments in the LKA NRW and in other security authorities in the federal government, people have been thinking at the same time about how such acts can be prevented. There was therefore an intensive exchange of information. The crimes in Trier, at the Kiepenkerl in Münster, in Hanau and in Würzburg, among others, have once again led to an "extreme acceleration" of work on a project called "PeRiskoP", which is managed by the State Office of Criminal Investigation, as project manager Boris Vieten says. A few months after the attack on the Moselle, "PeRiskoP" therefore went into successful pilot operation in Münster, Bielefeld and Kleve. The abbreviation stands for "People with risk potential".

The innovative concept for the early detection of these individuals and for dealing with them is strongly based on the processing of cases in the area of politically motivated crime. It will be implemented over a three-year implementation phase in 47 district police authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia with a central office in the LKA. The aim is to identify high-risk individuals at an early stage - regardless of their political or religious motives. "With PeRiskoP, we can now more easily track down potential gunman throughout the state," says Interior Minister Herbert Reul. "Of course, there is no such thing as 100% certainty, but we hope that PeRiskoP will enable us to intervene in suspected cases and thus minimize the risk of serious acts of violence." Vieten adds: "There can never be one hundred percent certainty because of the dynamics involved, especially in the case of amok. The perpetrators often think about the issue for years. Sometimes it is the smallest and incalculable reasons that lead from thoughts to action. But with PeRiskoP, we as the North Rhine-Westphalia police are making an important contribution to minimizing risk and improving cooperation between important network partners. Ultimately, one thing counts: every victim is one too many and we can improve every day."

In addition to Trier, the rampage attacks in Hamm and Berlin were particularly serious cases that drew attention to this particular form of violent crime. Vieten also cites the attack in Christchurch, New Zealand, as an example, as well as the attacks on a regional train near Herzogenrath and the shooting of neighbors by a man in Rommerskirchen in the Rhine district of Neuss a few weeks ago.

"For Vieten, however, the shooting rampages at schools in the United States - such as the recent one at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas - must be seen in a very different light". The "much greater availability of weapons in the USA" is a key factor here. Nevertheless, there is a crucial link to North Rhine-Westphalia - the media coverage. After the shooting rampage at Robb Elementary School, it was clear that the crime was literally exploited by the media in Germany. "There is a clear lack of a press code here - as with suicides." Vieten explains why this is critical: "Reporting like this can serve as a kind of detonator for potential perpetrators. And the police can't see what happens in the person's head. This broad media coverage is a significant risk factor."

"The perpetrators are often known to the police and have psychological problems," says Vieten. "However, it must be clear that mental illness is never a sign of dangerousness. This is even statistically and scientifically refutable. Rather, it is a few medical conditions and, for example, previous experiences of violence that increase the risk."

A mental illness is statistically more likely to lead to someone becoming a victim rather than a perpetrator of violence. What's more, many people have not yet committed violence. It is therefore important to prevent stigmatization and to recognize and correctly interpret the warning signs. Sometimes, however, the crucial connections and communication channels between different institutions are missing. For example, what does an employee in the school psychological service do when she notices signs? Who does she turn to? In the past, completed projects have already recommended creating structures within the police. This is exactly what "PeRiskoP" is now doing to ensure responsible risk minimization.

During the test phase in Kleve, Münster and Bielefeld, 66 test cases were processed. These included a young man who had repeatedly borrowed books on the subject of "amok". In the past, he had already threatened to commit amok on the internet. The police were alerted to the case by "PeRiskoP".

They were able to gather information at an early stage and involve network partners. However, a misjudgement due to a lack of information or unforeseeable knee-jerk reactions can never be completely ruled out. Unfortunately, it was not possible to prevent the young man from entering a vocational college armed with a BB gun, Molotov cocktail and knife. Fortunately, he was overpowered by the police and arrested without anyone being injured.

When assessing the risk, the police use a list of criteria to look at risk and protective factors that may be relevant to the situation. If a person shows a willingness to use violence or weapons in conjunction with mentally conspicuous behavior, "PeRiskoP" can be used. In joint case conferences, the police and other authorities such as schools, health authorities or psychiatric institutions discuss the risk potential and the long-term, stabilizing approach.

The risk assessment is carried out in all 47 district police authorities by a full-time case handler. If there are "high-risk cases", the "PeRiskoP" central office at the LKA NRW can be contacted for risk analyses in future. Its members are experienced police officers and psychologists.

The objectives of the concept are:

• Improving the early identification of people with risk potential, thereby minimizing the risk of serious acts of violence
• Establishment of a structured and qualified investigation process with a holistic, interdisciplinary approach. In doing so, all legal and danger-preventing/preventive possibilities are exhausted.
• Close cooperation with local network partners in case conferences and round tables
• Increased focus on (mentally) conspicuous people with risk potential, independent of established political or religious ideology
• Professional risk analysis by the "PeRiskoP" central office

The exchange between the authorities naturally takes place within the framework of the legal requirements, in particular data protection.

The police are not solely responsible. Until now, they have often only taken action when a criminal offense has been committed or a specific or present danger exists. The competencies of the police must be supplemented by the competencies of various network partners in order to be able to act holistically. In the "PeRiskoP" concept, the police, in cooperation with other institutions, can react even before a crime is committed - for example by initiating family counseling or psychosocial support. It is a joint task that can only succeed by pooling different areas of expertise.

Who actually generates the test cases? "That's everyone's job," says Vieten. There is a handout (orientation guide), but a test case should be created as low-threshold as possible (i.e. at the first thought). If in doubt, it is better to write. It is also important that all information "from outside" is always taken seriously.